How Many More Games Will Michigan Win in '07?

We have hit the halfway point in Michigan's season already, and questions of how the final 6 games will turn out are on nearly everyone's mind right now. Just quickly looking back at the first 6 games, a 4-2 record wouldn't probably shock anyone. The way Michigan got to 4-2 would, however. Following the stunning loss to Appalachian State and the blowout a week later to Oregon, many wondered if the Wolverines would even get to a .500 record by this point in time. As it turned out, Michigan rebounded to beat a bad Notre Dame team, an average Penn State team, an average Northwestern team, and then an Eastern Michigan team that is, well, Eastern Michigan.

Right now I'm not too optimistic. I've seen this story play out before and it doesn't have a happy ending. First I'll say that with the way things have gone the last couple of weeks, Michigan isn't a good team. That is the reason why the Wolverines haven't played that great so many times already this season. The offense is just absolutely predictable as Mike DeBord is one of the worst play callers I've seen in quite some time. That might sound a tad harsh, but it is true. He has to start opening up the playbook more in the second half of the year, otherwise good defenses will look like great ones against Michigan. Mike Hart can only run left so many times before the defense puts 11 guys there instead of the norm of 7 or 8 in the box.

On the defensive side of the ball, the main component to their success is not playing a team with an athletic quarterback that runs the spread. That is why the "D" got lit up in the first two games. Armanti Edwards and Dennis Dixon simply had their way with Michigan's defense, and they both led their teams to a victory because of that. The key for Ron English is to make sure his defense performs the way they should against non-spread/non-athletic QB teams. Looking at the schedule, Michigan will see a spread team next week in Purdue. Before hitting the panic button, just know that Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter isn't exactly someone that will run over all the place. In fact, he isn't a runner at all, so as long as the defense can contain the spread as a whole, then U-M will at least have a chance to win.

Moving on to the next game, Michigan heads to Illinois for a primetime showdown in Champaign. That game has me worried greatly. Juice Williams, Illinois' quarterback, is the type of player that will take off and run on you. Plus, the Illini run a spread type of offense and just have a lot of speed on the offensive side of the ball. That just doesn't match-up well for Michigan's defense, so we probably will see problems there. After Illinois, Michigan hosts a Minnesota team that is just bad. That should be a win.

After the Battle for the Little Brown Jug, Michigan heads to November with three tough games. Even though Michigan State has headed back to reality and may be in their usual meltdown mode, this game still will be tough. It is in East Lansing and you know that Mark Dantonio and company want to win this game more than any other in 2007. Dantonio installed countdown clocks that tell his players how long it is until this game, so they will definitely be focused on getting the win.

Next on the schedule is another road game, this time a trip to Madison to face the Badgers. Wisconsin finally lost a game (haven't since last year's Michigan game) and now dropped out of the top 5, thankfully. They never really deserved to be there in the first place as they are not a top 5 team, but who am I to talk when Michigan was up there in the polls at the start of the season. Anyways, this game should be winnable, but since it is on the road and could end up as a night game, the atmosphere alone will make it tough.

As we head to the season's final game against Ohio State, this game just looks tougher as the weeks go by. Ohio State has reloaded since last year and now are winning with their defense. They completely shutdown Purdue on Saturday and could end up in the national title picture again. I really hate to say this, but I just don't see Michigan winning the annual rivalry at this point. I'll gladly be wrong, but Ohio State looks too good right now.

Rather than look ahead to a possible Big Ten title, I am just hoping Michigan gets to 6 wins first. That way, the Wolverines will be bowl eligible and will keep the nation's longest streak of consecutive bowl games alive. I wouldn't have guessed that celebrating bowl eligibility would've been a big deal before the season, but after what I've seen, it definitely will be now. I know it's sound negative, but a lot of bad things could happen in these final 6 games.

As far as a prediction goes, I think I'll hold off on that since my original prediction of 11-1 was so off. What I will say, however, is what the various scenarios are that could present themselves in the final half of the season.

Best Case: Obviously, going 6-0. That would be beyond shocking to me as it would mean Michigan rattled off 10 straight after the first two losses and actually beat Ohio State. I'd say the chances of ending up 10-2 are very slim, but it is a possibility, just not a very good one.

Worst Case: This may sound unbelievably bad, but 1-5 could happen as well. It may be on the same level as 6-0 in terms of how likely it is to happen, but who would've thought Appalachian State would beat Michigan? That shows that there is always the chance. Out of these final 6 games, Michigan should be able to get 1 win. After that, there are so many tossups that if everything went against Michigan their record could end up 5-7, leaving them at home during the playing of bowl games.

Most Likely Case: How about I just settle somewhere in between. 6-0 and 1-5 probably won't happen, so I'd say something like 3-3 is more expectable. Purdue and Illinois will both be tough tests, but Minnesota should be a win. After that, those two road games scare me, but Michigan State may be falling fast. My feeling on that probably will change as we lead up to the game. Finally, the Ohio State game already is a loss in my mind. I just don't see Lloyd Carr taking a "W" over Jim Tressel this season, meaning the ownage continues.

With all of this being said, don't think Big Ten title just yet. If you're the most optimistic person alive you will be, but with Michigan you have to think realistically. That means that becoming bowl eligible should be priority #1, then we can move on to bigger and better things. Until then, though, just worry about the next game and getting a victory then. With that being said, please beat Purdue.