Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

The Detroit Lions kick off the 2023–24 NFL regular season against the Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs, in the nationally televised Thursday night spotlight no less, 5:20 EST at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO.

There is no tougher ask in professional football than taking on the defending champions at home, on Ring Night, against their worldly quarterback and mastermind head coach.

There has not been so much optimism for Detroit fans in years as the Lions look to build on their late-season surge from a year ago. If last year’s trends hold true, plenty of points should be placed on the scoreboard. The underdog Lions should also have a chance to pull off a season-opening stunner.

Keep reading for team news and our Lions vs. Chiefs betting prediction.

Detroit Lions Team News

The Lions (9-8 last year) finished the preseason 2-1 with wins against the Carolina Panthers and N.Y. Giants. The decision was made for QB1 Jared Goff to sit out the entire preseason so that he will see his first game action since last season against the Chiefs.

Last year, the Lions offense ranked 4th in Total Yards Per Game (380 ypg) and 5th in Points Per Game (26.6 ppg). Led by Goff’s 4,438 passing yards and 29 passing TDs, the team finished 8th in Passing Yards Per Game with 251.8 ypg. The Lions offense was well-balanced, finishing 11th in Rushing Yards Per Game at 128.2 per.

Gone, however, from last year’s team are Jamaal Williams (now a Saint) and his 1,000-yard season with 17 rushing touchdowns and the team’s second-leading rusher, D’Andre Swift (552 yards and 5 TDs a year ago), now a Philadelphia Eagle.

Running behind one of the league’s more underrated offensive lines this year will be Alabama rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and veteran David Montgomery, formerly of the Bears. The team’s leading receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown (1,161 yards and 6 TDs last season), is listed as questionable for the opener after suffering a preseason ankle injury.

Of course, the soft spot last year was the Detroit defense. The Lions ranked last in Yards Allowed Per Game (392.3 ypg) and third to last in Points Allowed Per Game at 25.1. The Lions overhauled the secondary, acquiring Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson while drafting Brian Branch out of Alabama. Moseley’s status for the game is uncertain. The team also drafted linebacker Jack Campbell out of Iowa to fill some of those big running lanes. The combination of Aiden Hutchinson (9.5 sacks last year) and James Houston (8 sacks) hope to force the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes into a rare off night.

Kansas City Chiefs Team News

The Chiefs finished 14-3 during the regular season last year. Plus, as everyone knows, they outlasted Philadelphia to take home its second Super Bowl trophy under coach Andy Reid in the last four years.

The 2022 Kansas City offense ranked 1st in both Yards Per Game (413.6 ypg) and Points Per Game at 29.2. MVP quarterback Mahomes led the league with 5,520 passing yards and 41 TD passes.

Tight end Travis Kelce had 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns to lead the team. After Kelce, the Chiefs’ other pass catchers are more castoffs than pro bowlers and will highlight Kadarius Toney (questionable), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Sky Moore. The Chiefs’ undervalued running attack will feature Isiah Pacheco (831 rushing yards last year) to go with Jerick McKinnon (56 receptions) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Last year, the Kansas City defense was middling statistically, allowing 21.7 points each contest. They are without All-Pro Chris Jones (holdout) and his 15.5 sacks from last year, and that could be a difference-maker in this game. 

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction

The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites with a total O/U of 54. The Lions were 5-4 on the road last year. The Chiefs were 7-1 at home. Most signs point to a Chiefs celebration on opening night. 

The less-than-a-touchdown spread is intriguing and telling. The Lions will play ball-control and keep away from Mahomes. Both teams will try to run the ball more than normal. We think the Lions will have a chance to win the game late…but won’t.

Prediction: Kansas 27, Detroit 20